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What's the Issue !

Improving regional communities’ emotional and physical health is critical for healthier and more resilient food supply networks.  When people feel safe and secure with good mental health in their towns food farming community networks can flourish. The importance becomes clear when we consider the food needs of a large global city like Sydney metropolitan. Sydney’s surrounding regional areas reveal something concerning. Violent and harassment crime along with mental health rates are significantly higher in the regional areas compared to the metropolitan areas.

With climate change advancing extreme events and political commitments not meeting the needs to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees our regional communities are set to enter into a period of more extreme events. These extreme events without forward planning could be expected to disrupt our current food production rhythms. Food production rhythms our large global cities depend upon to keep them fed. For that reason its important to get moving now on understanding how to produce resilient food system, reduce crime and deliver spaces which make better mental health.

The Evidence of Higher Crime in Regional Communities

In New South Wales (NSW), Australia violent and harassment crimes are significantly higher (p < 0.01) at 1.7 – 2.6 times greater in regional towns and cities compared to metropolitan Sydney. 

Rates of violent and harassment crime. Comparison regional towns and cities and metropolitan Sydney. Plotted as a bar chart.
Median violent crime rates for 2021 comparing regional towns and cities with Sydney metropolitan for NSW, Australia.

So What ?

These crimes act just fires, floods, droughts and earthquakes like extreme events in people’s lives. Their trauma can leave a “long-lasting negative effect on a person’s attitudes, behavior, and other aspects of functioning” (American Psychological Association, 2018). So, if we don’t heal these traumatic scars with our words and actions then we could expect that continued exposure to violence could result in a higher association of lower emotional awareness and higher psychopathology in these communities (Weissman et al., 2020). Such a situation could spell a future where communities’ emotions are overwhelmed with more conflict and traumas that continue across generations.

The Evidence of Higher Mental Health in Regional Communities

Indeed, NSW regional communities have significantly higher mental health rates (p < 0.01) at least 1.7 times greater compared to the Sydney metropolitan regions.

Mental health rate comparison for 2021 between regional NSW communities and metropolitan Sydney.
Median mental health rates for 2021 comparing regional towns and cities with Sydney metropolitan for NSW, Australia.

So What Could We Do?

Start More Research into the Restorative and Generative Emotional and Physical Rhythms that Prevent Violence

One adaptive research step is towards knowledge into how the rhythms of human systems and ecosystems interact to prevent violence and heal emotional and physical traumas after extreme events in regional environments. This understanding applied to the design of public spaces could prevent the criminal activities of motivated offenders and provide a sense of physical and emotional safety to women, children and older people. Disrupting the cycle of crime and the negative emotions of trauma with a world could benefit the creation of wise artificial intelligence (AI) which. I say this because “To be peaceful and satisfied with peace is most wise” while in contrast “To hurt humanity often involves a desire to satisfy hate through hurt. If we desire to hurt through our hate then we may become malicious enough to not deserve our own humanity.”. Anger and sadism which inflicts violent and harassment crime hurts other people, it hurt communities but perhaps AI designed around the ethics of healing rhythms of emotional and physical hurt and rather than towards the sale of products based on clicks could teach our humanity to be more peaceful and satisfied with peace.

Learn to Listen of Ourselves and Share Our Personal Experiences of Emotional and Physical Healing.

My journey into safer public space research began when a motivated offender shot me, when by the time I turned my head the gun was pointed to my temple. The perpetrator fired the gun and the sound of a firework reverberated in my ears.”. Afterwards, I travelled a year through Iran and Georgia and returned to New Zealand to regenerate my family’s farm. However, an abuse dynamic forced me to seek better opportunities so I returned to Australia and enrolled at the regional university of Southern Cross University (SCU) in Lismore. It was there I became a member of the SCU community garden from 2020-2023. It taught me a lot about how safe public spaces help us through experiencing multiple extreme life events to find a kinder humanity. In Lismore, I began working more intently on the UN Sustainable Development Goal Target 11.7 to “By 2030 provide universal access to safe, inclusive and accessible, green and public spaces, in particular for women and children, older persons and persons with disabilities”. I left the garden with friendships and had planted many fruit trees for our future members. It was a joy to plant them in the pleasant air with the knowledge that future students would share in delicious, locally produced, fresh and nutritious fruits and vegetables. 

Design Community Gardens and Orchards within Residential Diversionary Programs

When the routine activities of communities form networks of capable guardians in public space they can disrupt motivated offenders from re-traumatising suitable targets through acts of violence and harassment (Cohen & Felson, 1979). Community gardens are networks of citizens experimenting with food production in public space and also friendship networks who can support each other to heal from physical and emotional traumas. Considering this community gardens could be one solution to support reducing dependence on criminal justice systems that incarcerate people into cycles of offence-release-reoffence after experiencing an extreme event, particularly since extreme events are on the upward trajectory under climate change scenarios (IPCC, 2023). This is not argue against imprisonment since many crimes demand imprisonment for the safety of the community. Crimes can be so severe in their “malicious and callous intent” and the damage so great to the emotional and physical health of others that the maximum sentence of life imprisonment is justified (Davis, 2018). On the other hand, young offenders who can be granted bail require safe residential environments with mentorship support argues New England Centre for Rural Criminology criminologist and General Council Manager of Walgett Shire, NSW (Mageros, 2025). Indeed, mentorship in a safe residential space with a the health targeted intervention of a community garden where those granted bail in a residential diversionary program have the opportunity to grow food for themselves and even provide some back to the community could improve emotional and physical health measures greater than unconditional income payments (Miller et al., 2024).

Establish the Functional Food Ecosystem Experimental and Monitoring Framework for Community Gardens and Orchards in Public Spaces 

Community gardens are also citizen science initiatives and are one opportunity to flourish food producing communities through experimental learning to try out new farming practices that focus on functional ecosystem networks that reduce pesticide and fertilizer inputs, adapt better to new climate change extremes and promote regenerative cycles of soil and water health. From the small opportunities of people working together in community gardens to experiment with new using practices in open science, with access to affordable monitoring technologies and testing, joint metropolitan-regional university partnerships we could start the food system transformation. Data from these experiments assessed for quality and uploaded onto databases like Havard dataverse could create a network of ecological farming practices. This data safeguarded with data security to ensure data sovereignty could deliver an essential public good in an era of climate change. Empowered evidence-based regenerative agricultural startups that are agile to adapt the food production system transformation. 

We have an opportunity give back and flourish friendship, food growing and a more emotional and physically pleasant futures with community gardens :).

Methodology of Research

The code and datasets to generate these results are publicly available on GitHub (Abrisham Local Pathways, 2025). All results are produced using open data that is publicly available on crime and mental health for the state of NSW. Crime data is sourced from the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR) open data page (NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, n.d.). Census data on mental health for 2021 is retrieved from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The Local Government Areas (LGAs) are classified into local government area council types using the Australian Classification of Local Governments categories (NSW Government, n.d.). The data of this comparison consists of the 25 Sydney metropolitan areas and the 37 NSW regional town and city areas from the 128 incorporated local government areas (LGAs) of NSW. 

Map of NSW with colour coded council types
Map of NSW with LGAs colour coded according to council type: Sydney metropolitan (green), NSW regional towns and cities (blue), Sydney metropolitan fringe (purple), NSW rural (orange), and NSW large rural (red) LGAs. The grey area is an unincorporated area of NSW. There are two unincorporated areas in NSW. The ‘Unincorporated Far West’ and ‘Lord Howe Island’.

Crime rates and mental health rates for those in police custody are not captured in this analysis and deserve further research.

Estimation of Crime Rates

The crime data is filtered for the year 2021 and the following crimes: “non-domestic violence-related assault”, “domestic violence-related assault”, “sexual assault, sexual touching, sexual act and other sexual offenses”, and “intimidation, stalking, and harassment”. Detailed definitions on these categories are available at the BOCSAR glossary (NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, 2024). Crime rates for each LGA are estimated using population census data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2021 census (ABS, 2021a).

Estimation of Mental Health Rates

Mental health is segmented by gender (male; female) and age (0–34 years; 35 years and older). The mental health “variable describes whether a person has been told by a doctor or nurse that they have a mental health condition (including depression or anxiety)” (ABS, 2021b). Mental health rates for each LGA are calculated by dividing the mental health rates over the population census data.

Statistical Analysis

Statistical analysis is performed using the Python programming language. The statistical analysis is performed on crime and mental health variables. Bar graphs represent the median rates with error bars the 25th-75th percentile Inter-Quartile Range (IQR).

When comparing mental health and crime rates statistical significance was determined with first with checks. Normality was checked via the Shapiro-Wilk test and homogeneity of variances via Levene’s test used the standard ANOVA with a Tukey HSD post hoc test. When normality was present but homogenity of variances was not then Welch’s ANOVA with a Games-Howell post hoc test was performed. If the normality was not confirmed then a Kruskal-Wallis test with Dunn’s post hoc test with Bonferroni correction was calculated to determined the statistical significance between council types.

References

Abrisham Local Pathways. (2025). Finding Voice: Wastewater Management [Dataset].
https://github.com/AbrishamLocalPathways/NSWMentalHealthCrimeComparison

American Psychological Association. (2018). Trauma. In APA dictionary of psychology. Retrieved October 15, 2025, from https://dictionary.apa.org/trauma

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2021a). 2021 Census—General Community Profile for Local Government Areas (NSW) [Dataset].
https://www.abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/datapacks/download/2021_GCP_LGA_for_NSW_short-header.zip

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2021b). Whether has mental health condition (including depression or anxiety) (HMHCP).
https://www.abs.gov.au/census/guide-census-data/census-dictionary/2021/variables-topic/health/whether-has-mental-health-condition-including-depression-or-anxiety-hmhcp

Cohen, Lawrence E., and Marcus Felson. 1979. “Social Change and Crime Rate Trends: A Routine Activity Approach.” American Sociological Review 44(4):588. doi:10.2307/2094589.

Davies, N. (2018). R v Berlinah Wallace: Sentencing remarks. Judiciary of England and Wales. https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/r-v-wallace-sentencing-1.pdf

IPCC. 2023. Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (Eds.)]. Geneva, Switzerland: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]. doi: 10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.

Mageros, A. (2025, October, 19). ‘People are scared in their own homes’: NSW mayor’s plea to Premier Chris Minns as crime crisis grips regional community. SkyNews. Retrieved on the 23th of October, 2025 from
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/crime/people-are-scared-in-their-own-homes-nsw-mayors-plea-to-premier-chris-minns-as-crime-crisis-grips-regional-community/news-story/ce834f18e96a053557a1458cb78cc0cc

Miller, Sarah, Elizabeth Rhodes, Alexander Bartik, David Broockman, Patrick Krause, and Eva Vivalt. 2024. Does Income Affect Health? Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial of a Guaranteed Income. w32711. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. doi:10.3386/w32711.

NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. (n.d.). Recorded Crime Incidents by month—By LGA [Dataset]. Retrieved February 11, 2025, from https://bocsarblob.blob.core.windows.net/bocsar-open-data/RCI_offencebymonth.xlsm

NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. (2024, November 15). Definitions and explanations—Crime and policing statistics. NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. https://bocsar.nsw.gov.au/statistics-dashboards/crime-and-policing/rcs-definitions-and-explanations.html

NSW Government. (n.d.). Australian Classification of Local Governments and OLG group numbers. Retrieved February 11, 2025, from https://www.yourcouncil.nsw.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Australian-Classification-of-Local-Government-and-OLG-group-numbers.pdf 

Weissman, David G., Erik C. Nook, Aridenne A. Dews, Adam Bryant Miller, Hilary K. Lambert, Stephanie F. Sasse, Leah H. Somerville, and Katie A. McLaughlin. 2020. “Low Emotional Awareness as a Transdiagnostic Mechanism Underlying Psychopathology in Adolescence.” Clinical Psychological Science 8(6):971–88. doi:10.1177/2167702620923649.

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